The impact of COVID-19 on home value in major Texas cities

PurposeThis study aims to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on housing price within four major metropolitan areas in Texas: Austin, Dallas, Houston and San Antonio. The analysis intends to understand economic and mobility drivers behind the housing market under the inclusion of fixed and random effects.Design/methodology/approachThis study used a linear mixed effects model to assess the socioeconomic and housing and transport-related factors contributing to median home prices in four major cities in Texas and to capture unobserved factors operating at spatial and temporal level during the COVID-19 pandemic.FindingsThe regression results indicated that an increase in new COVID-19 cases resulted in an increase in housing price. Additionally, housing price had a significant and negative relationship with the following variables: business cycle index, mortgage rate, percent of single-family homes, population density and foot traffic. Interestingly, unemployment claims did not have a significant impact on housing price, contrary to previous COVID-19 housing market related literature.Originality/valuePrevious literature analyzed the housing market within the first phase of COVID-19, whereas this study analyzed the effects of the COVID-19 throughout the entirety of 2020. The mixed model includes spatial and temporal analyses as well as provides insight into how quantitative-based mobility behavior impacted housing price, rather than relying on qualitative indicators such as shutdown order implementation.

EFFECT OF GOVERNMENT AGRICULTURAL EXPENDITURE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM A DEVELOPING COUNTRY

Fiscal policy has been used by various governments to promote economic growth. The effectiveness of government expenditure on economic growth depends on recipient sector of government expenditure. This study contributes to this research area by investigating the effect of government agricultural expenditure on economic growth in the Kingdom of Lesotho. The government of Lesotho identified the agricultural sector as a productive sector that is central to the achievement the economic growth goal and development plan. Descriptive statistics and inferential econometric techniques (ARDL, DOLS and VEC Granger causality) over time-series data for the period 1982-2019 were utilized in this study. The results suggest that while current level and pattern of government agriculture expenditure cannot stimulate the desired economic growth and prosperity in the country, domestic investment appear to be a stimulant of the desired economic prosperity. Consequently, any economic growth policy or strategy that is premised on government agricultural sector expenditure would fail. Thus study recommends that countries including Lesotho should prioritize sustained increase in domestic investment.

Direct Digital Services Taxes in Africa and the Canons of Taxation

The unprecedented expansion of the digital economy has increased the intricacy of mobilising tax revenues from both domestic and international transactions. Tax evasion and avoidance are perpetuated by the invisible nature of digital transactions. To minimise the untapped revenues, countries all over the world are mapping policy strategies on how to collect revenue from this sector. African countries are not an exception. They have constructed digital tax policies to levy both direct and indirect taxes on digital transactions. This paper focuses on direct digital service taxes (DSTs). Direct digital service taxes have been an issue of debate among governments, policy makers, academics, tax bodies, and development organisations. Disagreements coalesce around their structure, their adherence to the canons of taxation, opportunities, and challenges as well as consequences of implementing them. Through a literature review, this paper assesses the legislative structure and administration of digital service taxes in relation to the canons of taxation. The findings of the review were conflicting. While certain aspects, motives, and possible outcomes of the taxes upheld the principles of taxation, some of these were conflicting with the principles. This could possibly be linked to variations in the economic, political, and social contexts in African countries and between developed and developing countries. The study recommends that while digital service taxes are an irrefutable necessity to tap tax revenues from the digital economy, African countries should ensure that equity, neutrality, economy, and efficiency among other principles are considered and balanced with the fundamental roles of tax policy.

Pandemic-Era Uncertainty

We examine several measures of uncertainty to make five points. First, equity market traders and executives at nonfinancial firms have shared similar assessments about one-year-ahead uncertainty since the pandemic struck. Both the one-year VIX and our survey-based measure of firm-level uncertainty at a one-year forecast horizon doubled at the onset of the pandemic and then fell about half-way back to pre-pandemic levels by mid-2021. Second, and in contrast, the 1-month VIX, a Twitter-based Economic Uncertainty Index, and macro forecaster disagreement all rose sharply in reaction to the pandemic but retrenched almost completely by mid-2021. Third, Categorical Policy Uncertainty Indexes highlight the changing sources of uncertainty—from healthcare and fiscal policy uncertainty in spring 2020 to elevated uncertainty around monetary policy and national security as of May 2022. Fourth, firm-level risk perceptions skewed heavily to the downside in spring 2020 but shifted rapidly to the upside from fall 2020 onwards. Perceived upside uncertainty remains highly elevated as of early 2022. Fifth, our survey evidence suggests that elevated uncertainty is exerting only mild restraint on capital investment plans for 2022 and 2023, perhaps because perceived risks are so skewed to the upside.

Digital Financial Inclusion, Digital Financial Services Tax and Financial Inclusion in the Fourth Industrial Revolution Era in Africa

The digital economy has risen dramatically in the global environment, and many developing countries, including African countries, have seen a spike in digital activity over recent years. The digital economy’s growth has resulted in an increase in digital financial services (DFS) in Africa and other developing regions. Since many African countries are under pressure to raise domestic revenue, taxing the digital economy has become a viable option. As a result, this study attempted to respond to the following questions: first, what is the link between DFS growth and digital inclusion in African countries? Second, what justifies the imposition of DFS taxes in Africa? Third, what are the potential consequences of DFS taxes in African countries? Using secondary data from the literature review and document analysis, a systematic technique for assessing or evaluating printed and electronic documents, and computer-based and internet-transmitted material, the study discovered that digital financial inclusion is driving financial inclusion on the African continent. The study also found that, despite several negative consequences associated with the growth of the digital economy, most African economic activities are informal and are being aided by various digital financial services. Therefore, it is equally crucial that when adopting digital finance taxes, care is taken to avoid excluding low-income earners from the financial sector and to take note of the usage, affordability, and distortive implications of taxation.

Our Workforce and COVID-19: How Remote Working Plays a Role: Quarterly Journal

Using a university as an example, students located in more rural areas may have issues with internet access or cannot afford to have an adequate computer system at home for participating in required class work (Camera 2020). [...]there is a cost implication for society. [...]of the approach taken, managers can acquire accurate information to make decisions on how to control costs and provide savings for the business or company and they can seek input from employees. Motivation Pre-COVID-19 research suggests remote working can increase an employee's job satisfaction, organizational commitment and help improve employee performance at their job tasks.

Inflation and Interest Rates: Some Clarity To Mixed Macroeconomic Signals

The proximate threats to continued economic growth remain the COVID-19 pandemic and policy error at the U.S. Federal Reserve. 2019 and Pre-COVID When teaching an honors finance course in fall 2019, I told my students that an inverted yield curve probabilistically predicted an economic recession in the next 12 to 18 months. First-time claims for unemployment insurance (UI) skyrocketed, and between early March and early June 2020, over 40 million Americans filed first-time claims.2 The unemployment rate quadrupled between March and May 2020. Focusing on direct cash infusions to support consumption, this response amounted to a quarter of annual U.S. GDP.4 The Federal Reserve lowered its overnight lending rate to zero and more than doubled its balance sheet with asset purchases.

Municipal financial vulnerability in pandemic crises: a framework for analysis

Purpose>This paper explores how global pandemic crises affect the financial vulnerability of municipalities.Design/methodology/approach>This paper is developed from the relevant literature an analytical framework to examine municipal financial vulnerability before a global pandemic crisis and in its immediate aftermath by mapping and systematizing its dimensions and sources. To illustrate how it can be used and evaluate its robustness and flexibility, such a tool was applied to Portugal and Italy, two countries that particularly suffered from the Covid-19 crisis.Findings>The application of the analytical framework has shown how financially vulnerable municipalities are to global pandemic crises. Financial vulnerability relates to issues ranging from institutional design to internal financial conditions and the perception of the capacity to cope with a crisis. Results further reveal that vulnerability has an inherent contingent nature in time and space and can lead to paradoxical outcomes.Research limitations/implications>This paper provides a tool that can be useful for both academic and public policy purposes, to further appreciate municipal financial vulnerability, especially during crises.Practical implications>Municipalities can use the framework to better manage their financial vulnerability, strengthening their anticipatory and copying capacities, while oversight authorities can use it to help municipalities become less financially vulnerable or, at least, more aware of their financial vulnerability.Originality/value>Municipal financial vulnerability to global shocks has not been explored extensively. Also, the Covid-19 pandemic is different from previous global crises as it affected society overnight with the implementation of lockdown and social distancing measures.

Choosing the Optimal Tool for Fiscal Adjustment or Living under Fiscal Constraints: Panel Evidence from Selected OECD Countries

This article examines the long-run two-way causal relationship between government revenues and spending and their interaction with the yearly change in public debt for eighteen OECD countries by using annual data for 1976-2017 period. The empirical literature has mainly focused on the long run relationship between government expenditure and revenues or other single country time series while only a few studies have used panel causality analysis and none have investigated the link with the evolution of public debt ratios. The purpose of this paper is to present a dynamic model identifying the underlying relationships constituting the fiscal policy set-up in sample countries. We apply a robust dynamic panel causality methodology based on SUR systems and Wald tests with country specific bootstrap critical values. The study also aims to provide the basis for recommendations on the policy response to public finance challenges stemming from exogenous shocks like the global pandemic that began in 2020. By developing an enhanced analysis of the long-term causal relationship between taxation, spending and their interaction with changes in public debt, the study not only provides fresh insights into the sustainability and optimal design of fiscal adjustment efforts but also offers a country-specific schematization as a guide for policymaking.

Economic growth in the Central East European Union and the Western Balkan countries in the course of Stability and Growth Pact and COVID-19 *

This research aims to provide an empirical assessment of the relationship between fiscal policy sustainability factors, like fiscal deficit and economic growth in the Western Balkan countries and East European Union Countries, using panel-level data for the yearly time span from 2000-2021. The empirical model provides the impact of fiscal deficit, alongside other control variables like inflation, schooling, total investments, trade openness, and output gap on economic growth in the selected group of countries. For the purpose of research, we employed Static and dynamic panel estimation techniques like Fixed Effects with Driscol and Kraay standard errors and system GMM. The findings confirm that fiscal deficit has significantly affected the growth level in both groups of countries. In addition, when the fiscal deficit has interacted with the COVID-19 dummy, it appears as a growth-enhancing factor. However, when the fiscal deficit interacts with the Eurozone debt crisis period, it becomes a growth-deteriorating factor. Other control variables like inflation, trade openness, total investments, and the output gap are found important factors in explaining the growth performance of the Central East European and Western Balkan countries.Alternate :Ovo istraživanje ima za cilj utvrditi empirijsku procjenu odnosa izmeðu čimbenika održivosti fiskalne politike, poput fiskalnog deficita i gospodarskog rasta u zemljama zapadnog Balkana i zemljama Istočne Europske unije koristeći panel baze podataka za godišnji vremenski raspon od 2000. do 2021. godine. Empirijski model istražuje utjecaj fiskalnog deficita, uz ostale kontrolne varijable poput inflacije, školovanja, ukupnih ulaganja, otvorenosti trgovine i proizvodnog jaza na gospodarski rast u odabranoj skupini zemalja. Za potrebe istraživanja koristili smo statičku i dinamičku panel procjenu tehnike poput fiksnih učinaka s Driscol i Kraay standardnim greškama i sustav GMM. Nalazi potvrðuju da je fiskalni deficit značajno utjecao na razinu rasta u obje skupine zemalja. Osim toga, kada se fiskalne varijable dovedu u interakciju s COVID-19 dummy varijablama, fiskalni deficit rezultira značajnim i pozitivnim učinkom na gospodarski rast. Meðutim, kada je fiskalni deficit u interakciji s razdobljem dužničke krize u Euro-zoni, on postaje čimbenik koji pogoršava rast. Ostale kontrolne varijable poput inflacije, otvorenosti trgovine, ukupnih ulaganja i proizvodnog jaza smatraju se važnim čimbenicima u objašnjavanju uspješnost rasta zemalja srednje i istočne Europe i zapadnog Balkana.

Fiscal adjustments: lessons from and for the Baltic states

This paper aims to investigate the effects of various fiscal policy measures for small and open economies by analysing the implications of fiscal shocks in the Baltic countries based on data for the period from 1995 to 2018. For this purpose, we have chosen structural VAR estimation methods following Blanchard, O., & Perotti, R. (2002). An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117(4), 1329–1368, approach and relied on local projections for robustness checks. We find that the impact on growth of direct taxes, government consumption and public investment is strong and persistent in the analysed cases. Although the responses of FDI to fiscal shocks are less consistent as compared to output, in most cases, we get strong and persistent negative reactions in FDI to increasing tax burden.

The Fiscal Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Subnational Governments: The Case of Russia

This paper examines the fiscal consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic for subnational governments. In particular, we study how the pandemic affected the Russian regions in terms of budget revenues, expenditures, and federal transfers. We use a novel dataset and compare various monthly fiscal measures in 2020 prior to and during the pandemic to the corresponding measures in 2019, conditioning on regional actions in response to the pandemic, the health impact of the pandemic, and the potentially relevant regional characteristics. We document that small business tax collections declined the most in response to the pandemic-related restrictions, while unconditional discretionary transfers and health care expenditures rose the most. Also, we find that tax collections are positively associated with population mobility, controlling for the restrictions, suggesting that tax revenues were inversely affected by the degree of compliance with the restrictions. Finally, we outline some policy implications for the design of fiscal federalism and directions for future research.

Addressing the Next State Fiscal Crisis: Toward an Ex Ante Scheme of Federal Assistance to States in Fiscal Distress

The Brookings Institute projects that state and local revenues will decline $155 billion in 2020 (5.5%), $167 billion in 2021 (5.7%), and $145 billion in 2022 (4.7%).4 Dwindling revenues are insufficient to cover mounting costs, and budget shortfalls are mounting.5 The looming state economic crisis has spurred a debate about the proper federal response.6 One position, often represented by governors or Congressional Democrats, advocates for massive federal aid to distressed states.7 In talks regarding the second COVID-19 stimulus, for example, Democrats pushed for more than $900 billion in federal aid to states, reasoning that states are unable to cope independently with their financial troubles.8 Without federal funds, argue the proponents of federal assistance, states may collapse, bringing the nation's economy with them.9 The other position, often represented by congressional Republicans, objects to using federal funds for state bailouts.10 According to this view, states should handle their own finances, and federal funds should not be handed out to poorly-managed ("blue") states.11 In lieu of federal aid, a state bankruptcy solution is offered.12 Bankruptcy law, it is argued, can reduce the states' debt overhang and spread their losses among their creditors, obviating the need for federal funds.13 But both of the suggested federal responses, bankruptcy law and ex post federal aid, seem problematic. [...]states don't have the resources to finance their rising costs, and a state economic crisis develops. [...]opposite to the directives of standard economic theory, in times of recession states cut spending and investments, and these measures damage not only the distressed states, but also the national economy. [...]as emphasized by opponents of federal bailouts, federal aid creates moral hazard problems. if states know that the federal government will provide financial assistance when they fall on hard times, they have little motivation to save or follow prudent financial policies.17 Second, and no less importantly, the Article shows that because federal aid is provided through a political process, it is dispensed according to politicians' personal interests and not necessarily pursuant to the beneficiaries' financial needs.

TAX SYSTEMS OF UKRAINE AND EU COUNTRIES DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC: CURRENT STATUS AND PROSPECTS

At the start of 2020, the world faced major challenges due to the COVID-19 pandemic. International institutions, governments and various organizations are forced to apply unprecedented restrictive measures in many areas of activity. The answer to these challenges by the governments of almost all countries of the world is actively manifested in tax measures aimed at supporting citizens and businesses. The article was devoted to the study of the level of taxation for certain taxes in Ukraine and EU countries in a crisis. The study proves the relevance of determining the optimal level of taxes to fill the budget. This study uses the method of comparative analysis, which compares the levels of tax rates in Ukraine and some EU countries. The optimal level of tax revenues to the state budget has been determined. The level of tax revenues to the Consolidated Budget of Ukraine has been analyzed and the main directions for improving the tax system of Ukraine have been identified. The necessity of focusing on the experience of highly developed EU countries in the field of taxation with the obligatory consideration of national characteristics is proved.

Is the Inheritance and Gift Tax a Reasonable Alternative for the Net Wealth Tax?: A Legal and Economic Analysis Across OECD Countries

Net wealth taxes are one of the most controversial topics in taxation. Strained government finances due to the Covid-19 pandemic and the increasing inequality in the distribution of wealth are fuelling this debate. While some countries (especially France: The net wealth tax – referred to as the ISF (impôt sur la fortune) – was abolished in 2017) have abolished net wealth taxes, their (re)introduction is being considered in others (for example, Austria, Germany, and the United States). Unfortunately, legal and economic arguments are rarely brought together in the public discussion, and the academic tax community has remained relatively quiet. Given the politically delicate nature of net wealth taxes, an interdisciplinary discussion seems necessary. This policy note focuses on the policy discussion on net wealth taxes from both economic and legal perspectives. It begins by identifying the characteristics of a net wealth tax compared to related taxes, such as property taxes and inheritance and gift taxes (Chapter I.). This is followed by an overview of the status quo of net wealth taxes and wealth-related taxes in the OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) countries (Chapter II.). Building on this, the article deals with the main arguments proposed in the literature in favour of and against the (re)introduction of net wealth taxes (Chapter III.). Since a net wealth tax has far-reaching effects on economic decision-making and on taxpayer compliance, a purely legal analysis is necessarily incomplete and requires an economic counterpart. Likewise, economically motivated tax reform proposals require an analysis of their legitimacy. A comprehensive discussion therefore requires a simultaneous legal and economic analysis. Since net wealth taxes are predominantly justified with distributional reasons, this note also discusses whether an inheritance and gift tax represents a reasonable alternative to a net wealth tax (Chapter IV.). After all, an inheritance and gift tax could also counteract the inequality of wealth. The objective of this article is to provide an interdisciplinary basis for the tax policy debate on wealth-related taxes.

Tax compliance, public spending and happiness in Europe

Purpose>This study aims to analyze whether tax compliance is the basis for the short-run dynamics of the development of welfare and happiness. The strengthening of tax compliance of corporates and citizens is not only important to achieve the goals assumed by fiscal policy but also is part of the values that can generate a higher level of welfare and happiness in Europe.Design/methodology/approach>This study uses a dynamic factor model to offer new indexes that allow to monitor tax compliance, public spending and happiness trajectories and to evaluate their short-run relationships. Next, an analysis of the cyclical characteristics in terms of duration, amplitude and intensity is provided using the Harding and Pagan method (2002).Findings>The empirical findings show that the European countries were able to reinforce tax compliance during the expansionary periods of the economy, and this has made it possible to increase public spending, and indirectly, happiness. Otherwise, this paper shows that the contractions of public resources during the global crisis, such as the case in the COVID-19, reduced the possibilities of well-being in Europe and made it more difficult to increase public spending and happiness.Research limitations/implications>This study tries to analyze the transmission channels and relationships of three very complex variables: tax compliance, public spending and happiness. Incorporating these three variables into this research, with a short-run perspective, the authors have opened a new line of research that enriched the previous analysis. Therefore, the authors’ results should be considered the first step, that this study is going to continue to unravel the complexity of these relationships.Practical implications>The design of policies aimed at improving individual, corporate and the well-being of nations needs them to incorporate elements of tax compliance as an objective that has economic and social implications. Individuals and corporates contribute to a fairer and more equitable society through compliance with tax obligations.Originality/value>To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first paper that offers evidence on the short-run dynamics of tax revenue, public spending and happiness for a better understanding of their relationships and behavior during the different periods of the economy.

COVID-19: Global Diagnosis and Future Policy Perspective

We analysed the macroeconomic policy responses to COVID-19 pandemic and the impact of the pandemic on economic growth, and the level of consumption. The COVID-19 crisis is a dual crisis - public health crisis and a macroeconomic crisis. The policy responses to this crisis have been a 'life versus livelihood' sequencing and the findings are such that global cooperation, and domestic macroeconomic policies complementing with exit strategy to solve the economic disruptions in supply chains can be helpful.

Governance and Sustainability in Local Government

According to auditor reports in 2021, local government councils are failing their communities and their voters. Victorian Auditor General's Office (VAGO) Reports 2021 suggest that the Councils of local governments are rife with conflicts of interest, manipulation of land deals, lacking independence and captured by their CEOs. The Victorian Government has recently introduced a new Local Government Act 2020 (VIC) to address the corruption, poor professional conducts of particular individuals and poor organisational culture exhibited by local government councils. The paper raises questions about what this will mean for local government governance, risk management and accountability, culture and leadership, relationships within councils, and how the inclusion of community governance will impact on the selection of and efficient delivery of programs. A fundamental challenge facing local government is determining the sustainable governance structures and practices that meet the needs of their communities in ways that balance economic, environmental, social and governance concerns. The paper draws on previous research that touch on ESG issues and identifies some areas for further research.

Economic Structure, Public Policy, and Private Decisions

The "headline numbers" flowing from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Census Bureau, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and other agencies provide ambiguous information unless put under the microscope. [...]holding Fed-managed interest rates near the "zero bound" and keeping its balance sheet expanded at nearly $8 trillion in assets places structural pressures on monetary policy in an economy whose outlook remains unpredictable.8 Fiscal policy, meanwhile, has its own challenges, some of which are economic but most of which are political. Conversation around Federal spending has been couched in terms of "stimulus" and "recovery", but both of those terms are mistaken - reflecting the misapprehension that the pandemic disruption can be viewed as a typical recession susceptible to the usual remedies. Besides the continuing epidemiological risk, the ongoing structural problems of income inequality, technological displacement, housing insecurity, and infrastructure decay are areas where fiscal policy could and should make a lasting positive difference. According to CBRE, office net absorption in the first quarter of 2021 was negative 34.8 million square feet, and vacancy rose even more steeply than in the worst year of the Great Recession.9 With more than 111 million square feet still in the construction pipeline, office owners are braced for more bad news later this year and into 2022.10 Retail real estate was hammered long before COVID-19 arrived, as the sector has been "overstored" throughout the 21st century and was threatened by e-commerce even prior to the population being required to shelter in place in 2020. [...]cap rates ranging, on average, from 5.0 percent (for apartments) to 6.6 percent (for retail) are keeping pricing rich compared with the risk inherent in that underwriting uncertainty.12 We are observing many investors increasing their focus on property management aimed at retaining tenants and defending cash flow, while selectively seeking "value-add" properties amenable to active asset management.

Build This House: Real Estate Opportunities in The U.S. Under Biden

In the face of sudden economic stops, monetary policy has demonstrated its limitations, and successive waves of fiscal relief packages disbursed by governments have provided critical liquidity support to help shore up balance sheets for households and for companies hard-hit by the pandemic.2 As multiple vaccines are disseminated across the globe, an uneven economic recovery has taken shape, with countries such as Italy, Spain, and the U.K. having experienced severe contractions in 2020, and with China actually posting real GDP growth in 2020.3 While investors remain exuberant about the prospects of additional stimulus measures-fueling the unleashing of pent-up demand and the onset of the 'roaring twenties'-expectations for higher inflation have sent shudders through bond and equity markets in the U.S. Nevertheless, considerable slack in the labor market remains in the U.S., with segments of the economy still far behind recovery.4 In early 2021, the real unemployment rate hovered around 10%.5 The aggregate unemployment rate for those at the bottom part of the wage quartile far exceeds that of the top-with many minimum wage jobs in sectors such as leisure and hospitality having been decimated during the crisis, whilst higher-earning white-collar workers have, for the most part, been able to retain their jobs working from home.6 Indeed, even thinking beyond unemployment numbers and focusing on income, many households within the bottom three quintiles of the income distribution came into the crisis in a situation of stagnation, or deep distress. [...]these opportunities are also to be found across global markets. [...]with central banks and governments committed to expansionary monetary policy in the wake of the pandemic, a lower interest rate-induced surge in buying homes (for those who can afford to) has unfolded within advanced economies across the globe, including Singapore, Canada, and the U.K.18, 19, 20 In December 2020, U.S. housing starts jumped to their highest level in 13 years.21 In early 2021, U.S. existing home sales reached the highest level in 14 years.22 Similarly, with the rush of pent-up demand emerging from initial lockdowns, house prices in the U.K. hit a six-year zenith.23 Looking beyond lower interest rates as a causal factor, purchases have been stepped up throughout the pandemic by those who have been able to work from home, and might have transitioned into a more amenable living arrangement, potentially with more space to live and work and play. [...]homeowners in the U.S. spent an average of $17,140 on their homes in the first eight months of the pandemic.24 Due to the surge in demand, a shortage of supply, and ongoing tariffs and disruptions to supply chains, the price of lumber has spiked by 180% since the spring of 2020, eating into developers' margins, and also contributing to the rise in house prices.25 It is important to note in the debates about the potential return of high inflation, house prices are not included in